ZLV Online

Abstrakt

Accurate and timely prediction of bark beetle-related timber volumes is essential for minimizing economic losses and for ensuring effective logistics management in both the forestry and wood-processing sectors. Therefore, this study focuses on analysing the predictive capacity of interim reports on salvage logging volumes to estimate the final annual impacts of bark beetle outbreaks. Based on a regression analysis of time-series data from the Czech Republic (2007–2024), we examined the relationship between mid-year and three-quarter reports and the total annual volume of bark beetle–affected timber. The results demonstrate a very strong correlation for both reporting periods. However, the analysis revealed that the relationship between mid-year and annual volumes does not correspond to a simple linear doubling; instead, it requires the application of a multiplication factor of approximately 3.1. This pattern reflects the phenology of the spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus) and delays in detecting infestations during the first half of the year. In contrast, three-quarter reports show high stability and align with the theoretical expectation of volume completion at the end of the year. The study confirms that interim reporting can serve as a robust tool for early prediction and strategic planning in forest management.