| Name of article: | Modelování gradačního areálu píďalky podzimní (Oreophtera brumata L. 1758) při předpokládaných změnách klimatu na Slovensku |
|---|---|
| Number: | Special |
| Year: | 2007 |
| Author: | Marek Turčáni, Tomáš Hlásny, Vladimír Kalina, Miloslav Vach |
Spatial distribution of winter moth (Operophtera brumata L.) in relation to climatic conditions has been studied in Slovakia. previous gradient analyses defined soil moisture, temperature/elevation, and presence of Quercus petraea and absence of Q. cerris as key factors, which influence spatial distribution of this moth species. Algorithm model, which synthesized individual parameters was used to calculate probability of outbreaks. The GIS interpretation of models sugested that size of optimum area (where defoliation might occur) was inversely related to simulated temperature. The largest optimum area (83,352 ha) resutled from model with long-term normal temperatures (calculated from temperatures prior the temperature increase in the 1980s). The temperature increased by 1°C resulted to decrease of potential optimal area by 75% (optimum only at 22,217 ha). Increase of temperature by 2°C (from normal) led to almost the diminishing of outbreak area (optimum only at 2,129 ha). The results found are discussed.
