| Name of article: | Potenciálny vplyv zmien hornej hranice lesa na parametre lavín s použitím modelu ELBA+ – prípadová štúdia Nízke Tatry |
|---|---|
| Number: | 4 |
| Year: | 2013 |
| Author: | Martin Bartík, Matúš Hríbik, Marek Oreňák, Jaroslav Škvarenina |
Potential climate change can have a greater impact on the forest functions. We focused on the possibility to increase the upper forest limit and the influence of this effect on the scale of an avalanche. We used advanced software applications ELBA+ for avalanche simulation in different forest states for varying scenarios, i.e. the year 1970 and 2012 and for upper forest limit increase. Archived data from a large avalanche (14th March 1970) was used to calibrate the model for the local mountainous conditions. We simulated the avalanche of an identical size in the current state of the catchment (more forest area on the avalanche path), which allowed us to quantify the retarding effect of the forest. In the next step we modeled a possible increase of the upper forest limit up to the point of 1600 m a.s.l., which was considered a climate change scenario. The results confirmed a limited retarding effect of the forest in the avalanche path within avalanches of such intensity. However, the presence of forest has a positive influence on the release zone on reducing the size of an avalanche.
