Popis článkuPrognóza vybraných ukazatelů ekonomického vývoje lesního hospodářství České republiky do roku 2016.
[Selected indicator prognosis of forest management economic development in the Czech Republic until 2016] 382 - 387.
|Název článku:||Prognóza vybraných ukazatelů ekonomického vývoje lesního hospodářství České republiky do roku 2016|
|Autor:||Vlastimil Vala, Jiří Bartuněk, Jitka Meňházová, Tomáš Badal|
The aim of the paper is to identify trends in a time series of selected economic indicators of forestry in the Czech Republic (the average own costs of growth activity in total in CZK/ha of forests; profit before tax from forestry activities without subsidies in CZK/ha of forests; profit of business entities in forestry to 1 ha; the average price of roundwood supplies to the domestic market at the site at location roadside, without VAT in CZK/m3; the average price of roundwood at location S (stump) without VAT in CZK/m3; the average monthly income in CZK/worker) for the period of 1996–2010. Selection of the reference and prognosis period was determined on the basis of availability of input data and the credibility of the prognosis information. Development of most indicators showed a considerable range of values in a reference period, caused mainly by the natural disasters in 2007 and 2008, and by the economic recession. The time series of selected indicators were offset by trends, which were then extrapolated to the year 2016. When selecting these trends, linear trends were preferred because non-linear trends showed too illogical values over the prognosis period, which limited their practical applicability. When making a prognosis of the economic indicators in forest management it is necessary to respect their genetic principle, which means an immanent link between the analysis of their development in the reference period and the estimate of their future progress.