| Název článku: | Prognóza vývoje kůrovcové kalamity a nová platforma pro šíření informací o lesích v České republice |
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| Číslo: | 3 |
| Rok: | 2021 |
| Autor: | Tomáš Hlásny, Katarína Merganičová, Roman Modlinger, Róbert Marušák, Radim Löwe, Marek Turčáni |
European forests are facing an increasing disturbance intensity from different agents. Bark beetle outbreaks fuelled by climate change have increased the level of tree mortality severalfold, with the Czech Republic becoming Europe’s epicentre. Here we elaborated a short-term prognosis of outbreak development (approximated by salvage volumes) for administrative districts of the Czech Republic. We used salvage logging data for the period 2003–2020 and a forecasting model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with an automatized parameter estimation. To make the results accessible, we developed a new web-map portal. We found that spruce with an age above 50 years, which is considered a suitable breeding material for bark beetles, can be depleted in 19 Czech districts in the period 2021–2023. The estimated volume of salvage trees due to bark beetle infestation was forecasted to range between 34 and 40 mil. m3 annually in the following three years, with a 90% prediction interval 22 to 52 mil. m3. The presented forecasts represent a missing decision material for the state administration and a data-driven and reproducible alternative to various expert estimates. The developed web-map portal can improve the awareness about the risks to forests and forestry in the Czech Republic and accelerate knowledge transfer from research to management and policies.
