Popis článkuModelová analýza invazivní strategie lýkožrouta smrkového v podmínkách LS Dvůr Králové.
[Model analysis of the bark beetle invasive strategy in conditions of the Dvůr Králové forest district administration (Czech Republic)] 25–36
|Modelová analýza invazivní strategie lýkožrouta smrkového v podmínkách LS Dvůr Králové
|Tomáš Hillermann, Jaromír Štůsek
The submitted paper is a result of the 10-year monitoring of the occurrence of the bark beetle in conditions of an organization unit in a state enterprise Forest of the Czech Republic (Lesy České republiky, s. p.). The statistical findings were further elaborated based on the hypothesis of the dynamic intersection of the factor sets within several years-long development of acceptances of a specific progress of natural-climatic conditions in the area. Although the extracted volumes of bark beetle mass are again alarming, the negative economic effect, which the forest owners in the Czech Republic must face is generally underestimated. The aim of the paper is to show some underestimated relations in the subject area when the invasive strategy of the bark beetle (Ips typographus) behaves according to the law of large numbers and geometric series with a high degree of coefficient. The hypothetical processed model is documented on verified values based on statistical surveys carried out by the author of the paper in the reference period 2007–2016. The issue of the invasion of the bark beetle is in the current period (November 2017) a very frequent topic, and it is a subject to many non-economic debates. The secondary aim of the paper is to show the biologically-mathematical nature and the principle of the bark beetle invasive behaviour. For more information see Summary at the end of the article.